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What we will cover this week:
Altcoin Season: Something Huge is Coming?.
Macroeconomic Outlook: U.S. Faces Biggest Job Loss in Years as Fed Relentless Rate-Cut Cycle - and What It Means for Markets
Narrative updates:
Notable projects to watch
Weekly ecosystem updates
Altcoin Season: Something Huge is Coming?
TOTAL3 is testing the peak levels reached during the bull runs of 2021 and December 2024. If it breaks out above this peak and sets a new all-time high, it could trigger a new explosive wave for altcoins as capital begins to flow into them.
TOTAL3 is an index that measures the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH.
Besides, a positive outlook for altcoins is indicated when TOTAL3 increases and BTC.D decreases. Currently, BTC.D has recovered from 57.5% to 59%, but it still follows a downward trend. If BTC.D drops to lower levels while TOTAL3 continues to rise, it will confirm a clear signal for the start of an altcoin season.
Stablecoins continue to reach new all-time highs, indicating a strong capital inflow from traditional markets into crypto. Loosening regulations are driving more traditional institutions to enter the crypto space, building infrastructure and products that support the transition from TradFi to DeFi in the near future.
CZ just hinted at the next bull run possibly for $BNB or the broader market. However, if $BNB grows, it will likely fuel significant growth across the altcoin market as well. When the biggest shiller says “bull run,” it means we might be entering it soon.
Macroeconomic Outlook: U.S. Faces Biggest Job Loss in Years as Fed Relentless Rate-Cut Cycle - and What It Means for Markets
Takeaways:
Jobs: Private sector lost 32K jobs (Sept) — biggest drop in 2.5 years.
946K layoffs so far in 2025 (+55% YoY), may top 1M by year-end.
Main Causes: Economic strain & restructuring (~300K), Doge-related (293K), AI (17K).
→ AI’s impact is small but rising.
Fed Outlook: Rate at 4.25%, expected cuts to 3.75% by year-end.
→ Easing bias = bullish for stocks, metals, crypto.
Labor Market: Job openings <1 per worker — now an employer’s market, signaling recession risk.
Weak jobs + Fed rate cuts = early-stage stimulus cycle favoring risk assets.
Narrative Updates
I/ Overall
Top Narrative Gainers In The Last 7 Days:
NFTStrategy Tokens:
Top coins gainer: SQUIGSTR (+277.8%), PUDGYSTR (+261.8%), PNKSTR (+249%)
Catalyst: A new mechanism linking token trading activity with NFTs serves as a catalyst for the growth of NFT-related tokens.
Memecoin on BNB:
Top coins gainer: 4 (+30K%)
Catalyst: CZ shilled constantly about number “4”
II/ Narratives to Watch
1/ “Mini ETF” for NFT (NFT Strategy Tokens)
Why Does It Matters?
It’s a completely new concept that links token trading activity to generate buying demand for NFTs. In the short term, it could create hype around NFT collections with strong community support, as members actively trade the strategy token associated with the NFT to generate more fees — which are then used to buy NFTs at floor price → driving the NFT’s price higher.
What are NFT strategy tokens, and how do they work? Read more [link]
Key Projects
Some of the main NFT strategy tokens I’m watching right now:
$PUDGYSTR: Backed by one of the strongest NFT collections in the market — Pudgy Penguins
$MADSTR: Backed by the most well-known NFT collection on Solana
$APESTR: Supported by the strong community of Bored Ape Yacht Club
How to Get Skin in the Game?
Consider NFT strategy tokens that have strong communities but are still in the early phase of trading. These tokens rely on high trading volume as stronger communities tend to trade more to generate more fees, which are then used to accumulate additional NFTs → driving NFT prices higher → re-listing NFTs for sale at higher prices → and resulting in more token burns.
Currently waiting for the Azuki strategy token, which has not launched yet.
Risks & Considerations:
Super high volatility
Thin liquidity
Depends a lot on trading volume
2/ DeFi Buybacks
Read more: DEFI BUYBACK: FROM YIELD TO BUYBACKS IN DEFI
IV/ Weekly ecosystem updates
Our radar expanding on these ecosystems:
Ethereum and notable L2s
BNB Chain
Solana
Bitcoin ecosystems
Base
HyperLiquid
Monad
Full news roundups for the week from September 29th - October 5th: HERE
V/ Notable projects to watch
This week’s watchlist highlights notable projects we believe are worth monitoring, chosen for their strong fundamentals and key upcoming catalysts.
And that’s all for this week. See you next week!
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Disclaimer: We are NOT financial advisors. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Crypto involves high risk and speculation - always do your own research before making investment decisions.