Risk-Off Ahead of Key Data, But Institutions Keep Buying BTC; CZ Highlights Prediction & AI & Oracles

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What we will cover this week:

The macroeconomic environment is currently defined by an anticipated pivot in Federal Reserve policy, a weakening US labor market, and market reliance on key technological sectors

Dovish Shift: Several Federal Reserve officials, notably Governor Christopher Waller, are advocating for a looser monetary policy, with Waller explicitly supporting a quarter-point rate cut at the December 9th-10th meeting. This action is intended to provide "additional insurance" for the labor market , and Waller argues the Fed needs a stronger reason not to cut rates

Weak Labor Market: The US labor market is described as weak and "near stall-speed". Evidence of this includes:

Inflation and Growth: Inflation expectations are reported as "well-anchored" , with underlying US inflation near the 2% target. US GDP growth is noted to have slowed in the second half of 2025

AI and Equities as Market Pillars: The stock bull market is currently resting on two main pillars: forecasts for artificial intelligence and Federal Reserve rate cuts. Uncertainty ahead of major earnings and economic reports led to a market slide, with the S&P 500 falling over 1%.

Geopolitical Tensions: The global outlook includes various trade and military concerns, such as the UK considering options to retaliate against Europe over steel tariffs. Additionally, comments from President Donald Trump raised concerns, particularly his aggressive stance on Mexico concerning drug flow, even suggesting a military strike is "OK with me".

The crypto market is currently facing short-term volatility but shows signs of institutional strength against a backdrop of potentially supportive monetary policy.

Market Correlation and Immediate Effect: Cryptocurrency tumbled alongside equities as traders reduced exposure to "riskier assets" while bracing for key reports, indicating a strong correlation with traditional risk markets in times of uncertainty.

Sentiment of "Extreme Fear": Despite the potential for a favorable monetary policy shift, the overall market sentiment for crypto is currently one of "Extreme Fear," as the Crypto Fear and Greed Index registered a reading of 14/100 points.

Positive Monetary Outlook: The growing support among Fed officials for a December rate cut to protect the labor market  is generally positive for non-yielding assets like cryptocurrency, as it suggests loosening financial conditions and a weaker U.S. dollar, which traditionally supports crypto prices.

Institutional Accumulation: The file records that a firm named Strategy bought 8,178 Bitcoin between November 10th-16th for an aggregate price of $835.6 million, demonstrating that institutional accumulation remains strong, even as the market experiences a short-term tumble.

The near-term economic outlook is highly dependent on the outcome of a few critical events:

Nvidia Earnings (Wednesday): The report is critical as it will test the market's confidence in the future of the booming AI sector, which is one of the two main pillars supporting the current stock bull market.

Key Jobs Report (Thursday): The delayed September jobs report is scheduled for release on Thursday. This data is expected to be a major factor in shaping the global financial outlook for the rest of 2025 and will likely influence the Fed's rate decision.

Federal Reserve Decision (December): The market's primary focus is the Fed's December 9th-10th meeting to see if Governor Waller's supported quarter-point rate cut will be approved.

Global Relations: Attention should be paid to the potential for new trade tensions (e.g., UK/Europe steel tariffs ) and any further developments regarding US geopolitical strategies in areas like Mexico and the Middle East.

Top Narrative Gainers In The Last 7 Days:

Analysts like Jacob Bury predict bounces and new highs once market conditions improve, viewing these coins as undervalued. 

Oracles, Prediction Markets, and AI

Why Does It Matter?

CZ posted on Binance Square calling for more new oracle projects to meet the growing demand from prediction markets and AI.

Notably, BNB Chain also announced a new prediction market protocol, “predict.fun.” Originally built on Blast, the protocol will soon relaunch on BNB Chain.

Based on CZ’s thesis, prediction markets are expected to grow significantly in the next cycle, which will drive stronger demand for oracle narratives and AI-powered prediction agents.

Key Projects

1/ AI Tokens I’m watching right now:

2/ Oracle Tokens I’m watching right now:

3/ Prediction Market Tokens I’m watching right now:

OPINION (no token launched yet): Backed by YZI Lab, native to BNB Chain, with high TVL and revenue. Currently offering a farming points program that could lead to a potential airdrop.

Our radar expanding on these ecosystems:

Full news roundups for the week from November 10th - November 16th: Here

This week’s watchlist highlights notable projects we believe are worth monitoring, chosen for their strong fundamentals and key upcoming catalysts.

Full list: Projects to Watch (November 10th - November 16th)