The crypto market is heating up once again. In August 2025, Bitcoin surged to a record $122,838, driven by post-halving momentum and buzz around a potential U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. But now, attention is shifting traders across X, Reddit, and Telegram are asking if an altseason is finally here.
By definition, altcoin season is when coins like Ethereum, Solana, or even memecoins outperform Bitcoin, sometimes gaining 5 - 10x. The setup looks familiar: Bitcoin rallies, consolidates, and capital moves into riskier alts.
1/ Market Signals
The Altcoin Season Index has jumped from 39 in July to 59 in early September, hinting at rotation.
For this index, it evaluates the top 100 altcoins by market cap (excluding stablecoins like USDT/DAI and wrapped assets like WBTC/stETH) over a rolling 90-day period.
It measures price performance relative to BTC: If an altcoin's percentage gain exceeds BTC's over those 90 days, it counts as an "outperformance." The score (0 - 100) reflects the percentage of these top 100 that beat BTC.
For example:
75% or more outperforming → ASI ≥ 75 = Full Altcoin Season (capital aggressively rotating to alts)
25% or fewer → ASI ≤ 25 = Bitcoin Season (BTC dominates, alts lag)
25–75 = Neutral/Transitional (mixed signals, often early rotation)
At this point, the Altcoin Season Index stands at 59, indicating a transitional phase that could mark the shift from Bitcoin Season to Altcoin Season.
(Source: Coinmarketcap - https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/altcoin-season-index/)
Another factor suggesting that rotation could occur in the next phase is Bitcoin dominance dropping from 65% in May to 58.2% today, indicating that liquidity is spreading across the market instead of being concentrated in BTC as it was in early July.
(Source: TradingView)
Historically, altcoin season has occurred when BTC dominance falls below 50%. With the current level around 58%, it would need to drop by more than 8% for the next potential altcoin season.
(Source: Coinmarketcap - https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/)
Furthermore, according to the ‘Alts Buy Signal’ chart from Cryptokoryo, which the team explains can be viewed similarly to an RSI indicator:
Below 0.4 → Accumulation zone (scaling in; generational buy below 0.1)
Above 0.6 → Distribution zone (scaling out; generational sell above 0.9)
Currently, altcoins are in the oversold zone, the lowest level ever recorded. Early signals point to a potential reversal, and if momentum carries into higher zones, it could mark the start of an altcoin season.
(Source: Dune - Cryptokoryo: https://dune.com/cryptokoryo/crypto-buy-signal)
2/ Fundamental Drivers
Beyond charts, macro conditions may accelerate the shift. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates on September 17, potentially boosting appetite for risk assets.
There are some key factors that could pursue FED to cut rate at this time:
PPI (Producer Price Index)
Measures wholesale price changes. Dropping PPI indicates lower cost pressures → inflation cool down → Promote FED cut rate
At this time PPI decreased 0.1% so expect for FED cut rate in the next.
(Source: Sosovalue - https://sosovalue.com/macro)
Unemployment Rate
Rising rates signal weakness, urging cuts to boost jobs and altcoin markets. Stable or falling rates reduce cut urgency
Currently, the index increased 0.1% compared to the previous period.
(Source: Sosovalue - https://sosovalue.com/macro)
3/ ETH ETF
ETH is also a key catalyst that could drive the next altcoin season.
Why?
Because ETH is one of the most widely used tokens. When ETH rises, capital often flows into its ecosystem through narratives such as liquid staking, restaking, DEXs, and lending & borrowing. This growth boosts protocol revenues, which projects can use to support their tokens through buyback programs, incentives for holders, or other mechanisms that encourage accumulation.
Currently, ETH ETF holdings are increasing rapidly, positioning ETH as a major catalyst that could fuel the upcoming altcoin season.
