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What we will cover this week:
Macroeconomic Outlook: Gold, Liquidity, and Bitcoin’s Turning Point
Narrative Updates
Narratives to Watch
Notable projects to watch
Weekly ecosystem updates
Macroeconomic Outlook: Gold, Liquidity, and Bitcoin’s Turning Point
Recent market dynamics highlight a clear inverse relationship between gold and Bitcoin, revealing how capital rotation between these assets drives crypto performance. Gold’s continued rally and investor euphoria suggest Bitcoin’s current correction phase is cyclical - not structural.
Gold’s Surge & the Liquidity Cycle
Gold recently hit $4,200/oz, doubling its 2020 high and pushing its market cap above $30 trillion. Foreign central banks have accelerated gold purchases while cutting U.S. Treasury holdings, signaling declining trust in U.S. fiscal stability and the dollar’s long-term value.
This reflects deeper macro forces: rising U.S. deficits, sustained quantitative tightening (QT), and mounting regional bank stress under high interest rates. Gold is pricing in anticipated QE and currency debasement once rate cuts resume.
Bitcoin’s Inverse Response
Data shows Bitcoin rallies when gold consolidates, and corrects when gold breaks out. The same pattern appeared in 2020 and 2024, and it’s playing out again today. Bitcoin topped as gold entered price discovery; for BTC to regain momentum, gold likely needs to cool into consolidation.
Bitcoin priced in gold is now over two standard deviations oversold, a level that has historically marked major macro bottoms.
Liquidity & Risk Sentiment
The Global Liquidity Index (GLI) and U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) have been moving sideways, stalling major risk flows. This explains why both S&P 500 and Bitcoin have been range-bound.
Investors remain defensive amid the U.S. government shutdown, lack of key economic data (CPI, PCE, GDP), and uncertainty over future rate cuts. When liquidity expands again, risk assets-particularly Bitcoin-should regain strength.
What does this mean?
Short-term: Gold dominance signals risk aversion; Bitcoin likely consolidates until gold peaks.
Medium-term: Anticipated Fed easing and renewed liquidity could trigger Bitcoin’s next leg up.
Long-term: Persistent U.S. debt growth and fiat debasement reinforce the bullish thesis for fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Narrative Updates
I/ Overall
Top Narrative Gainers In The Last 7 Days:
Tokenized Gold:
Top coins gainer: PAXG (+6%), XAUT0 (+6%), XNK (+6%), UGOLD (+6%), XAUT (+5.8%)
Catalyst: The ongoing China–US tariff war, global conflicts, and persistent inflation are driving demand for gold as a hedge asset. → Tokenized gold makes it easily accessible for people without the need for physical storage.
China Meme Coins:
Top coins gainer: LINA (+50.4%), PHB (+46.1%), NEO (+10.7%), 高手 (>1K%), 币安人生 (>10K%)
Catalyst: The PBOC is injecting more liquidity to spur growth. Meanwhile, the increasing number of games in the BNB ecosystem such as Meme Rush is driving capital flow from Solana to the BNB Chain. In addition, CZ and Yi He are constantly tweeting their support for the ecosystem.
II/ Narratives to Watch
Takeaways:
Prediction markets on BNB
China Memecoins on BNB
III/ Weekly ecosystem updates
Our radar expanding on these ecosystems:
Ethereum and notable L2s
BNB Chain
Solana
Bitcoin ecosystems
Base
HyperLiquid
Monad
Full news roundups for the week from October 12th - October 19th: Here
IV/ Notable projects to watch
This week’s watchlist highlights notable projects we believe are worth monitoring, chosen for their strong fundamentals and key upcoming catalysts.
And that’s all for this week. See you next week!
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Disclaimer: We are NOT financial advisors. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Crypto involves high risk and speculation - always do your own research before making investment decisions.
