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What we will cover this week:
Macroeconomic Outlook: FOMC Policy Shift - The Pivot Toward Easing and Its Market Implications
Narrative Updates
Narratives to Watch
Notable projects to watch
Weekly ecosystem updates
Macroeconomic Outlook: FOMC Policy Shift - The Pivot Toward Easing and Its Market Implications
The Federal Reserve concluded its November 2025 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting with two pivotal decisions: a 25-basis-point rate cut and the formal end of quantitative tightening (QT) effective December 1st. These moves signal the Fed’s transition from a restrictive stance to the early stages of monetary easing, marking a significant turning point for global markets.
Key Policy Changes
Rate Cut: The Federal Funds Rate was lowered by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.0%. This reduction was widely anticipated by markets, as rate futures had already priced in over a 90% probability of a cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
End of Quantitative Tightening: The more surprising decision was the Fed’s announcement that it will halt the reduction of its balance sheet on December 1st. The statement reads:
- “The Committee decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1st.”
This effectively ends QT - the policy mechanism that had been shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet since 2022. Over the past three and a half years, the Fed reduced its securities holdings by $2.2 trillion, lowering the balance sheet from roughly 35% to 21% of nominal GDP.
Chair Jerome Powell described the upcoming phase as a “pause” - the Fed will hold its balance sheet steady “for a time” while reserves slowly decline.
Fed’s Outlook and Internal Division: Powell emphasized that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, despite market expectations. He noted that FOMC members are split: some believe rates are already near the “neutral” zone of 3–4%, while others advocate further easing given slowing growth.
The Fed’s next meeting, set for December 10th, will hinge on incoming data - though Powell acknowledged the challenge of missing labor statistics due to the government shutdown:
- “If you’re driving in the fog, you slow down. So yes, we might be more cautious if the data isn’t clear.”
On inflation, Powell reaffirmed commitment to the 2% target, while admitting that tariffs will cause modest, temporary price increases before stabilizing. He also acknowledged consumer frustration over elevated price levels, noting it will take time for real incomes to recover.
What does this mean?
Monetary Trajectory: From Cuts to Printing
The sequence of Fed actions appears set:
Rate cuts (initiated this meeting).
End of tightening (December 1st).
Monetary expansion / money printing (likely by 2026).
Crypto markets are positioned to benefit most from this pivot. Historically, liquidity expansions and falling real yields have driven strong rallies in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and risk-on digital assets. Expectations of “money printing” in 2026 align with the narrative of crypto as an inflation hedge and a decentralized alternative to fiat dilution.
If the Fed follows through with renewed asset purchases, Bitcoin could front-run this policy shift, similar to the 2020–2021 cycle.
Narrative Updates
I/ Overall
Top Narrative Gainers In The Last 7 Days:
Privacy coins:
Top coins gainer: $MUTE (+425.8%), $RAIL (+88.2%), DASH (+76.8%), ZEC (+42.2%)
Catalyst: Key drivers include escalating digital surveillance fears (e.g., EU's "Chat Control" and Meta's AI data use), regulatory uncertainties like EU wallet scrutiny and U.S. policy speculation, high-profile BTC seizures highlighting traceability risks, tech upgrades (e.g., Zcash's shielded pools and halvings), and capital rotation from cooling sectors like AI and memes.
Zero Knowledge coins:
Top coins gainer: $ZK (+91.8%), $RAIL (+88.2%), ZEN (67.1%), ZEC (+42.2%), MINA (+30.1%)
Catalyst: Drivers include surging surveillance fears (e.g., financial tracking via CBDCs and KYC rules), high-profile endorsements from influencers like Arthur Hayes and Naval Ravikant fueling FOMO and short squeezes, tech upgrades (e.g., Zcash's zk-SNARKs, shielded pools at 30%, and upcoming halving), regulatory dynamics boosting demand as a compliance-friendly privacy hedge, and ecosystem growth with DeFi integrations and rising network activity.
Vitalik also shilled ZKsync in the last week.
II/ Narratives to Watch
ACP Coins
What is it?
ACP, or Agent Communication Protocol, is an emerging standard designed to facilitate seamless interaction and collaboration between AI agents in decentralized networks. It enables agents to discover each other, delegate tasks, coordinate workflows, and handle aspects like security and orchestration without relying on centralized systems
Why Does It Matters?
Resonating with the growth of AI and AI agents, ACP is poised to transform the AI agent landscape by shifting the focus from isolated, specialized agents to interconnected, collaborative ecosystems.
It’s built by VIRTUAL (or STRIPE), which has already proven the utility and market demand for this technology in practice.
Key Projects
Some ACP tokens I’m watching right now:
$AXR: Key infrastructure for ACP, enabling agent communication; positioned as a laggard with breakout potential in the "agentic hedge fund" segment
$MUTE: Acts as the ACP privacy payment layer for the Virtuals ecosystem, with partnerships like Butler; favored for dips due to institutional ties
$PREDI: AI-powered prediction market platform with Virtuals ACP integrations and an AI assistant (PrediBot); highlighted by FundStrat for user-created markets
$AXB: Smart money copilot for prediction markets, featuring upcoming ACP integration and terminal upgrades; low FDV play in AI x prediction narratives
$BILLY: AI-automated sports betting with signals and recommendations; ties into ACP for insights on prediction markets
$BIZ: AI copilot for real-time trends in prediction markets, evolving into a "universal truth engine" with ACP scalability for resolutions
How to Get Skin in the Game
Follow AI agents that have integrated ACP into their features, or follow new AI agent projects launched on Virtual.
Risks & Considerations
Low liquidity
Market volatility
Regulations
IV/ Weekly ecosystem updates
Our radar expanding on these ecosystems:
Ethereum and notable L2s
BNB Chain
Solana
Bitcoin ecosystems
Base
HyperLiquid
Monad
Full news roundups for the week from October 27th - November 2nd: Here
V/ Notable projects to watch
This week’s watchlist highlights notable projects we believe are worth monitoring, chosen for their strong fundamentals and key upcoming catalysts.
And that’s all for this week. See you next week!
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Disclaimer: We are NOT financial advisors. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Crypto involves high risk and speculation - always do your own research before making investment decisions.
